How do we think?

Chapter 02 / 18

Separate source and claim

A good source can still make a mistake.

Keep three separate lines

Fact: the saved notice says ‘Closed on Sunday’. Inference: it may be closed this Sunday too. Assumption: we accept that the notice still applies. The last two lines need more support. Check again if the notice is old.

Many copies, few sources

Five accounts may share the same photo. If all copy one notice, you do not have five separate sources. Find the first source. Keep records that do not fit your idea too. Looking only for your favourite answer is Confirmation bias.

Figure 02 · MindmapStudy sketch

Check a claim

Check a claim. Source. Date. First record. Other explanation. Missing dataEnlarge
Each branch is a check. The number of branches is not a confidence score.CSINT Research · Ahmet Göker
Read as text
  • Source
  • Date
  • First record
  • Other explanation
  • Missing data

Same terms in both languages

Keep these words

Fact
A fact supported by a record.
Inference
An idea you reach from evidence.
Assumption
Something you accept for now.
Confidence
How strongly the evidence supports the answer.
Circular reporting
Many reports repeat one source.

A small example

Let’s do it together

Three blogs use the same notice. The library’s page gives different hours today.

  1. Find which notice the blogs used.

  2. Write each record’s date and evidence.

  3. Show the record for the new hours. Explain how it differs from the old notice.

From my research notes · Real record

Two pages, the same map

In the Beirut study, I compared NASA and NASA Earth Observatory pages. Two pages do not always mean two separate measurements.

Read the record

  1. The map comes from analysis by ARIA and the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
  2. The same analysis also appears on another background. Its source chain goes back to the same work.
Decision flowStudy sketch

I found a second page

I found a second page. A separate observation?. Yes: Compare method and finding. No: Add it to the same source chainEnlarge
Read the question. Follow the matching branch.CSINT Research · Ahmet Göker
Read as text
  • A separate observation?
  • Yes: Compare method and finding
  • No: Add it to the same source chain

What I can write

I keep both links in my notes. I do not count them as two independent pieces of evidence.

Where I stop

Finding a new page is different from finding a new observation.

NASA Earth Observatory · Scientists Map Beirut Blast DamageRead my full source comparison

These are existing public records. The images are resized for reading; no new image detail was generated.

Close the notes. Think first.

Your turn

Does F6 in the Admiralty system mean ‘false’?

Read the explanation

No. We cannot judge source reliability or information credibility. Unknown and false are different.

Reading record

Only on this browser. These marks are not test results.

Sources

I used my study notes and wrote new practice examples. The source PDF is not distributed here.

About the sources and rights
© 2026 Ahmet Göker · CSINT Research. All rights reserved for the original text and drawings. Except where the law allows, ask for permission before copying or publishing them again. You can share a link to this book. Other names and sources belong to their owners.